Can Vietnamese Durian Navigate the Challenges on the Export Chessboard?

After just a few years of official export, durian has become a billion-dollar commodity for Vietnam. However, under pressure from rivals and increasingly stringent quality requirements, can Vietnamese durian maintain its position?

China Realizes Its Dream of Growing Durian

China—consuming over 90% of Vietnam’s durian exports—is undergoing a “durian production revolution.” The Chinese love eating durian, even gifting it as a trendy item to family and friends, especially on significant occasions like weddings. Thus, China has never abandoned its ambition to grow durian domestically.

According to Chinese media, the country began planting durian in the 1950s in Hainan Province. At that time, farmers mostly sowed seeds directly—a method that took over 10 years for trees to bear fruit, with low survival rates. These early trials yielded little success.

By 2018, Hainan Province began large-scale durian cultivation. To improve success rates, many companies invited durian experts from Thailand and Malaysia to share their experience. Cultivation models were adjusted to suit local soil and climate conditions, with technical support from the Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences and Hainan Academy of Agricultural Sciences. As a result, tree survival rates reached up to 98%.

Compared to Malaysia and Thailand, Sanya City—Hainan’s main durian-growing area—has an advantage in sunshine duration but faces challenges with low and uneven rainfall. To address this, several Chinese companies have built large reservoirs and installed automated irrigation systems to precisely supply water and fertilizer.

Additionally, they combine manual and mechanical weeding and use organic fertilizers to improve soil fertility. In the early development phase, each tree retains only 2–5 fruits to concentrate nutrients, helping trees adapt better and enhance future fruit quality.

In the 2023 season, China surprised the world by harvesting 50 tons of durian for the first time. Though the flavor didn’t match Southeast Asian durians, this milestone marked a major advancement in China’s durian cultivation, offering hope of reducing dependence on imported durians.

In the following years, China’s durian-growing area expanded rapidly—from 700 hectares in 2000 to 2,600 hectares by 2025, growing by 30% annually.

Experts note that for now, China’s durian production is still in its infancy and doesn’t yet threaten major exporters like Thailand or Vietnam. Currently, domestic Chinese durian is priced 2–3 times higher than imports. To match Southeast Asian price levels, China would need to expand its durian plantations to 121,000–202,000 hectares.

Nonetheless, China’s drive for self-sufficiency will inevitably pressure traditional durian-exporting countries. Its use of technology to overcome natural limitations shows not only its ambition to reduce import reliance but also signals a serious intent to turn durian into a well-developed domestic industry.

When the Market Gets Crowded

In 2022, Vietnam signed a protocol for official durian export to China, becoming the second country in Southeast Asia allowed to access this billion-people market. This milestone triggered a durian export boom in 2023 and 2024, with export values reaching USD 2.2 billion and USD 3.4 billion, respectively—accounting for half of Vietnam’s total fruit and vegetable exports in 2024.

Over time, China not only opened up to Vietnamese products but also diversified its durian sources from other regional countries. Most recently, in July 2025, Cambodia became the fifth Southeast Asian nation to export fresh durian to China, shipping over 17 tons from the Sihanoukville Autonomous Port to Shenzhen.

According to Cambodia’s Ministry of Agriculture, the country has over 11,000 hectares of durian, with 7,000 hectares already harvesting, producing about 120,000 tons annually—nearly one-tenth of Vietnam’s output.

In the near future, China is expected to welcome durians from Laos, which is promoting large-scale durian farming and providing farmers with cultivation training. Similarly, Indonesia is also preparing to enter the Chinese durian market, initially focusing on frozen durians to pave the way for fresh durian exports.

As Cambodia and Indonesia realize their ambitions, China’s durian market will see simultaneous competition from many sources, including domestic durians from Hainan and seven Southeast Asian suppliers: Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Laos.

Veteran exporters like Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines each have their strategies to boost competitiveness in China. Thailand—though its market share is declining—remains Vietnam’s biggest rival, thanks to its experience, strong national brand, extensive distribution network, and stable supply chain. Thai durians also fetch higher prices due to their premium positioning.

Malaysia stands out with its high-end Musang King brand, targeting affluent customers. Meanwhile, the Philippines, though a newcomer since 2023 with modest exports (USD 32.5 million in 2024), has shown rapid growth of 144.4%.

“Starting this year, I can say with 100% certainty that Vietnamese durian prices will not be as high as before. In Thailand, areas like the Northeast—where durians were rarely grown—are now cultivating tens of thousands of hectares. In a few years, the supply from Thailand will increase significantly, along with expanded production in Vietnam, which will flood the Chinese market,” said Mr. Đặng Phúc Nguyên, General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association.

“In my observation, China’s durian import value has remained steady at USD 7–8 billion annually, without sharp increases. I predict Vietnam’s durian exports will stabilize around USD 3–4 billion per year. It won’t reach USD 5–6 billion, but we’ll have to export more volume because prices are dropping,” Mr. Nguyên added.

Finding Solutions to Maintain Market Position

Facing mounting competition in China, both Vietnamese authorities and businesses have rolled out strategic moves to sustain export revenue. Non-compliant growing regions and packaging facilities have been eliminated, replaced by standardized production systems with strict traceability. In May 2025 alone, China approved 829 additional growing area codes and 131 new packaging facility codes—a testament to these efforts.

In early August 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment issued Decision No. 3015/QĐ-BNNMT, detailing the National Food Safety Control Procedures for Fresh Durian Exports—the first time a single fruit has received its own nationwide control framework. This standardizes the entire supply chain, from cultivation to packaging and export.

Experts believe that although Vietnam’s standards came after Thailand and Malaysia, it is not lagging in food safety control, especially considering that those countries have been exporting durians for a decade, while Vietnam only ramped up in the last three years.

On the business side, as fresh durian prices fell in early 2025, companies pivoted to exporting frozen durians to China, following the two countries’ agreement on a frozen durian export protocol signed in August 2024. In the first half of 2025, frozen durian exports from Vietnam to China surged, with 388 shipments totaling 14,282 tons—more than triple the volume from the same period last year.

While China remains the “main stage,” many Vietnamese companies are proactively expanding frozen durian exports to other markets like the US, South Korea, Japan, Australia, and Europe. If Vietnam’s durian industry maintains strict food safety control, continues to standardize planting area codes, and diversifies its products and markets, it could genuinely rival Thailand in the Chinese market.

“Conversely, if we chase volume at the expense of quality, today’s opportunities could become tomorrow’s risks. We also need to look at expanding into potential markets like Russia and the Middle East by optimizing preservation and deep-processing technologies,” suggested a representative of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association.

One notable highlight of the Food Safety Control Procedures for Fresh Durian Export (Decision No. 3015/QĐ-BNNMT) is its clear designation of responsibilities and authorities for each stakeholder in the durian supply chain—including growers, plantations, packaging facilities, traders, testing laboratories, and relevant departments under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment.

The Decision also includes appendices listing food safety regulations, requirements, and standards from major importing markets such as China and the EU—helping producers clearly understand and implement them. Additionally, the procedure provides detailed guidelines on sampling durian export shipments, ensuring all batches undergo quality inspection before being shipped.